The IMD Forecast: Key Statistical Insights

During a press briefing, Dr. Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, Director General of the IMD, stated that the average rainfall across India in May 2026 is likely to exceed 110% of the Long Period Average (LPA).

• Temperature Drop: Maximum day temperatures in Northern, Central, and Southern India are expected to remain 2°C to 6°C below normal.
• Night Conditions: While days will be cooler, high humidity levels might make nights feel slightly warmer than usual in certain coastal and eastern regions.

Regional Impact: Which States Will Be Affected Most?

The weather office has categorized the impact based on geographical zones:

1. Central & Western India: States like Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Chhattisgarh, and Gujarat are likely to witness frequent thunderstorms. Parts of Rajasthan, usually prone to dust storms, will see more rain this year.
2. South India: A Yellow Alert has been issued for Kerala and Karnataka, where pre-monsoon activity will be most intense. Heavy spells are also expected in Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
3. North India: Residents of Delhi-NCR, Punjab, and Haryana can expect significant relief from heatwaves. Intermittent rain showers will keep the climate pleasant throughout the month.
4. East India: Bihar, Jharkhand, and West Bengal are likely to see increased ‘Kal Baisakhi’ (Nor’westers) activity, bringing sudden squalls and rain.

Why is the Weather Behaving Differently?

According to meteorologists, the resurgence of La Niña conditions in the Pacific Ocean is a primary factor. La Niña is typically associated with better rainfall in the Indian subcontinent. Additionally, the frequent formation of low-pressure areas in the Bay of Bengal is pushing moisture deep into the mainland, creating monsoon-like conditions weeks in advance.

Essential Guidelines for Farmers and the Public

Given the sudden shift in weather patterns, authorities have issued the following advisories:

• For Farmers: Protect harvested crops and grains stored in open fields. In areas prone to hailstorms, ensure crop insurance and protective measures are in place.
• Health Precautions: Do not let the cooler temperatures lead to a drop in water intake. Sudden weather changes often trigger viral infections; stay hydrated and consult a doctor if symptoms of a cold or flu appear.
• Travelers: Tourists planning trips to hill stations in Himachal Pradesh or Uttarakhand must check real-time weather updates due to the risk of landslides and sudden heavy downpours.

Disclaimer

This report is based on the official monthly forecast issued by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) for May 2026. Meteorology is an evolving science, and local conditions may vary. For precise, real-time updates, please refer to the official IMD website or the ‘Mausam’ mobile application.

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