With the Assam Assembly elections scheduled for April 7 just three weeks away, the political landscape in Nagaon district is witnessing a flurry of last minute realignments and internal discord. As the first elections following the 2023 delimitation exercise approach, key constituencies like Dhing, Barhampur and Kaliabor have become the epicenters of high stakes political drama.
The most significant political development in the district is the apparent collapse of the proposed Congress Raijor Dal alliance, a situation that political analysts believe could hand a major advantage to the ruling BJP in the minority-dominated Dhing constituency.
Despite intense negotiations, Raijor Dal president Akhil Gogoi confirmed earlier this month that the alliance talks failed after the Congress party refused to concede the Dhing seat. Raijor Dal had repeatedly requested the constituency, which has a significant minority voter base, but the Assam Pradesh Congress Committee (APCC) president Gaurav Gogoi declined to give it up. Sources indicate that as many as 27 leaders had applied for the Congress ticket from Dhing with Anwar Hussain, a nephew of former minister Nurul Islam, emerging as a frontrunner.
With the AIUDF having held the Dhing seat for the past 15 years, the division in the opposition ranks is seen as a golden opportunity for the ruling party. Sitting AIUDF MLA Aminul Islam, who has won the seat three consecutive times since 2011, is expected to be a formidable candidate, though reports suggest the party might consider fielding him from Rupahihat instead.
Local Congress workers, who have been campaigning tirelessly to revive the party’s fortunes in the constituency, are now facing an uncertain path to victory with the anti BJP vote likely to be split.
On the other side of the aisle, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is navigating its own set of challenges in the Barhampur constituency. Tensions have surfaced between the BJP and its regional ally, the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) over seat allocation.
AGP leaders have publicly demanded that Barhampur, a seat long associated with the regional party and twice represented by former Chief Minister Prafulla Kumar Mahanta, be returned to them. However, the BJP has effectively sealed the candidature of sitting MLA Jitu Goswami from the constituency.
Assam BJP president Dilip Saikia recently asserted that Goswami would secure victory, a statement reinforced by Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma. This has dashed the hopes of AGP’s Mani Madhav Mahanta, who had reportedly sought the ticket. Chief Minister Sarma has characterized such clashes as “friendly contests,” but grassroots workers in the AGP camp have expressed dissatisfaction, feeling sidelined despite their long-standing association with the alliance.
In a boost for the NDA, the Nagaon district unit of the Assam Chah Mazdoor Sangha has announced its support for the BJP. The union, representing tea garden workers from 44 tea estates, has pledged to work for the victory of NDA candidates, including sitting MLA Keshab Mahanta in Kaliabor and Jitu Goswami in Barhampur.
Union president Bindu Ganju cited welfare measures by the state government, including land pattas and financial assistance for tea workers, as the reason for the extension of support.
As April 7 draws nearer, all eyes are on how these fractures and alliances will play out at the booth. With delimitation redrawing the electoral map and parties scrambling to consolidate their vote banks, Nagaon district is set to witness a fiercely contested battle that could significantly influence the formation of the next government in Dispur.
